A short description of the post.
Deja-vu! The North Carolina Supreme Court rejected the maps that I previously analyzed, instead opting to use maps drawn by outside experts. Wowza! Let’s, hopefully one last time, see how these maps compare to the 2010-2019 maps, the initially suggested redistricting by the General Assembly, the February update post the initial legal challenge, and now the court ordered drafted lines.
Need to re-run this with the get_ACS
all blocks in 2020 census with:
Demographic: white, black, asian, hispanic median income Households
The state house and state senate maps are final, only the congressional maps are being altered. I didn’t know that until I added the new maps (February in click option) to the below. If you don’t believe me, just find out for yourself.
Recall, to train the models on the new congressional lines, I assumed the 2022 midterms would follow FiveThirtyEight’s Partisan Lean. This assumes the worst for Democrats in North Carolina, which I imagine is more likely than not.